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2022 was marked by high volatility across commodity markets, showing the importance of data-driven decision-making and risk management. With this background in mind, hEDGEpoint's Market Intelligence team has put together an outlook for agricultural and energy commodities in 2023, to help you navigate these dynamic markets with resources based on fundamental analysis.

In this report, we go from a broader macroeconomic analysis, with China's post-COVID return, global inflation, and high interest rates, to a more fundamentally based one, considering supply and demand dynamics for the main commodities.

The carbon market, for instance, is one hot topic, and its developments throughout 2023 are worth monitoring closely.

Looking at the energy market, it plays a fundamental role in the global inflation dynamic, combined with China's comeback and lower growth in the West.

Among agricultural commodities, grains face a new global trade situation due to the extension of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the back-and-forth of biofuel policies.

An expected surplus set the tone for the sugar market, while its driving forces range from fuel pricing issues in Brazil to Asia's decision regarding export quotas.

You, the reader, are invited to enjoy a cup of coffee while we take you on a journey across this market, paying attention to its ever-present volatility. In 2023, price variations will mostly depend on the transition from La Niña to El Niño.

We're here to offer risk management solutions in a world in transition. You can count on us!

Have a safe journey.


Thais Buble

Thaís Italiani
Market Intellignece Manager
hEDGEpoint Global Markets


  1. Thin liquidity and an economic slowdown in the West will be key themes to watch in 2023, as well as the rapid comeback by China - where liquidity has been rapidly rising and providing optimism to commodity markets. The perception of peak interest rates in developed nations, with commodities in tight supply, has created a positive outlook for most emerging currencies within the macroeconomic framework.
  2. Oil markets were very volatile in 2022, and 2023 is anticipated to be the same. Supply restrictions and worries about a potential slowdown in the West have made prices swing recently. China’s comeback, after strict COVID-containment measures, adds optimism to the demand side - especially since it could offset any demand weakness in the West throughout the year.
  3. Political aspects play a considerable role in any compliance market. For both Cbios and RINs, recent developments have impacted prices. Some relevant announcements should be made in 2023, adding volatility to these markets.
  4.  The sugar market starts 2023 with a bearish bias, as a surplus is often associated with falling prices. However, there are some risks to this vision. Much can still change - whether in terms of macroeconomic developments, government decisions, or even weather anomalies.
  5. Bearish macro trends may affect coffee in the 1Q. Destinations are well supplied, and demand may lag early on, but growth is expected. Global economic recovery is bullish for commodities, enjoying support in the 3Q. If crop development is not affected by El Niño, the 23/24 and 24/25 crops may lead to some pressure in the 4Q.
  6. The Chinese reopening (which can be seen as almost as a certainty) and the macroeconomic scenario (still under debate) will be the leading demand drivers for cotton, with increases in imports potentially benefitting Brazil, while American producers may start to focus on other cultures.
  7. The main soybean producers showed an increase in area for 22/23. Still, for Argentina, the larger area may not translate into higher production. Biofuel policies can support oil consumption, but meal possibly won’t see the same growth.
  8. For corn, the scenario is tight, at least until 2H/23, due to crop failures (in the US and Ukraine) and potential losses in Argentina. Thus, there’s a lot of pressure on the Brazilian winter crop and incentives to increase the area of Northern Hemisphere crops.
  9. The impacts of the war in 2022 may linger through 2023 in the wheat market, leading to acreage changes, and a bigger role for Russia and the European Union, as they fill the gap left by Ukraine and Argentina in global markets, all the while forcing the main importers to adapt.




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